GS 1 INDIAN SOCIETY Population and associated issues.
GS 2 GOVERNANCE Issues relating to development and management of Human Resource’s.
Introduction
The sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in a population. The sex ratio for the entire world population is 101 males to 100 females (2018)
Contemporary Issues:
- Recently released Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical report (2018),highlighted that fertility rate has been declining in India.
- In their joint opinion piece, C Rangarajan (former Chairman, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council) and J K Satia (Professor Emeritus, Indian Institute of Public Health) argue that
- need to reach young people both for reproductive health education and services .
- to cultivate gender equity norms.
Fertility has been declining in India for some time now.
Data: Sample Registration System (SRS) Report
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR)– 2.2 in the year 2018.
- likely to continue to decline.(TFR of 2.1)
- As fertility declines, so does the population growth rate.
- estimated the natural annual population growth rate to be 1.38% in 2018.
- India’s estimated population of 137 crore.
- means that net 1.9 crore persons would have been added that year.
- likely to continue to decline.(TFR of 2.1)
- Comparison of 2011 and 2018
- TFR declined from 2.4 to 2.2.
- Fertility declined in all major states.
- 10 states had a fertility rate below the replacement rate in 2011– increased to 14 states.
- Annual natural population growth rate also declined from 1.47 to 1.38% during this period.
- Sex ratio at birth:
- Normal sex ratio at birth is 950 females to 1000 males.
- SRS reports– declined:906 females to 1000 males.
- considerable son preference in all states(except Kerala and Chhattisgarh.)
- UNFPA State of World Population 2020 estimated
- sex ratio at birth in India as 910(lower than all the countries in the world except China.)
- cause for concern – adverse ratio results in a gross imbalance in the number of men and women
- impact on marriage systems as well as other harms to women.
- UN Population Division has estimated
- India’s population would possibly peak at 161 crore around 2061.
- IHME estimated that it will peak at 160 crore in 2048.
India’s Population – replacement fertility levels:
- Many people believe that the population would stabilise or begin to reduce in a few years once replacement fertility is reached.
- not so because of the population momentum effect.
- a result of more people entering the reproductive age group of 15-49 years .
- due to the past high-level of fertility.
- the replacement fertility level was reached in Kerala around 1990
- but its annual population growth rate was 0.7% in 2018.
Way Forward
- India must implement the Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (PCPNDT) Act, 1994 more stringently
- Dedicate more resources to fighting the preference for boys.
- In this context, the Drugs Technical Advisory Board decision to include ultrasound machines in the Drugs and Cosmetics Act, is a step in the right direction.
- Needless to add that estimates so far out in time have considerable uncertainty.
- can be mitigated if young people delay childbearing
- space their children.
- Increasing female education and economic prosperity help to improve the ratio.
- Reach young people for
- reproductive health education.
- cultivate gender equity norms.
Conclusion
In view of the complexity of son preference resulting in gender-biased sex selection, government actions need to be supplemented by improving women’s status in the society.
India’s population future depends on it.
